The Post I Wish I’d Posted

If I was an expert on infectious diseases, my article a few days back about the H1N1 would have read a lot more like this.

Amusing, well written, and full of meaningful metaphors.

Also, it had some numbers I was keenly interested in:

Don’t you love the uncertainty. That’s the problem. I have to deal with uncertainties and probabilities of complex systems. I know the estimates are that for every 1000 people who get H1N1, 40 may end up in the hospital and 1 may die. With 300,000,000 Americans, that’s 30,000 deaths (standard for flu) and 120,000 in the hospital. Compare to 598 cases of GBS and 25 deaths in 1976. About as many as are trampled by cattle each year, but no one is getting rid of steak.

Note: GBS is Guillain-Barré Syndrome the terror du’jour for your anti-vaccination enthusiasts.


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